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Statistical Journal of the IAOS ; 38(2):577-590, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1910986

ABSTRACT

To face the increasing information need for measuring and monitoring economic and social phenomena, such as the impact of the pandemic, a number of dashboards have been published by national and international organisation. However, it can be hard to extract key signals from numerous indicators, and users could prefer concise messages. This was the aim for the development of the business cycle clock (BCC). This paper presents the BCC, the Eurostat online tool showing the recent cyclical situation of the economy, and how the BCC cyclical indicators have performed during the pandemic. We introduce some considerations about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic first on the input variables and then on the BCC cyclical indicators, focusing on different challenges, such as values several standard deviations away from usual ones. Finally, we focus on the recent output of the BCC cyclical indicators during the pandemic. According to the indications of the BCC for the fourth quarter of 2021, the euro area economy remained in a a stable expansionary' phase, although with decelerating growth. The euro area exited a recessionary phase in August 2020. The clock indicates that the risk of another slowdown or recession is very low at this stage in 2022. © 2022 European Union-licensed to IOS Press.

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